Environmental Modeling
Environmental modeling for dairy farms plays a crucial role in estimating both individual farm and broader industry environmental impacts. By using these models, farmers can better understand their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy use, which in turn highlights opportunities for reduction. With various management approaches, technologies, and practices available, dairy farms can implement strategies to reduce GHG emissions while supporting positive business outcomes. Additionally, water quality modeling helps farmers assess their impact on surrounding water systems and evaluate the effectiveness of different management practices, ensuring sustainable water use and protection of local ecosystems.
Learning Hub ▶ Environmental Modeling
CONTENT CURRENTLY UNDER DEVELOPMENT

What Is an Environmental Model?
An environmental model is a mathematical or computational tool used to simulate and analyze environmental systems and processes. These models are designed to represent the interactions between different components of the environment, such as the atmosphere, plants, soils, livestock, and manure storage. Environmental models can range from simple decision-support tools to complex simulation models that require significant data inputs. They are commonly used to obtain a baseline estimate of a farm’s environmental impact and estimate the impact of management changes, including the implementation of conservation practices.
In agricultural conservation, various models are used to assess and improve sustainability, optimize resource use, and mitigate environmental impacts. There are two key model categories:
Program Goal
EQIP addresses specific problems or “resource concerns” such as erosion, nutrient run-off, etc.
Practices Funded
New plans (including engineering), infrastructure, energy upgrades, in-field practices, edge of field practices, and more.
Funding Rates
Payments are based on flat rate payment rates determined by NRCS based upon typical costs associated with the implementation of practices; rates differ by state.
Funding Rates
See link for a full list of eligible practices and payment rates in each state. Find your state and click on the link for either EQIP or CSP
Duration
1-10 years
Funding Distribution
Max $450,000/ person or entity / Farm Bill EQIP distributes payments for specific conservation practice after they are complete and verified.

GHG Models
Purpose
These models estimate the emissions and sequestration of GHGs from agricultural activities. They are crucial for understanding the carbon footprint of farming practices and evaluating strategies for reducing emissions.
Applications
Applications include climate change mitigation, carbon offset projects, and sustainability reporting.

Water Quality and Soil Erosion Models
Purpose
These models simulate the transport and fate of pollutants, such as nutrients and sediments, within agricultural landscapes. They assess both the amount of soil loss due to erosion and the subsequent impact of sediment and nutrient runoff on water bodies. By integrating these aspects, the models help evaluate the effectiveness of conservation practices in protecting both soil and water resources.
Applications
Applications include watershed management, erosion control planning, evaluation of best management practices, and regulatory compliance.
Challenges with Models
Modeling the environmental impact of farms, rather than relying solely on direct measurement, is essential for several reasons:
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Variability: Different models can provide different results based on the purpose of the model, the inputs, and the model assumptions.
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Data quality: A model’s result is only as good as the data going into the model.
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Continuing improvements: Current models are not perfect. As our knowledge about ecosystem processes and conservation practices evolves, this information is used to improve models.
Value of Modeling
01
Feasibility
Models can estimate environmental impacts by integrating various data sources and scientific understanding, even when direct measurement is not feasible.
EXAMPLE
It would be impossible to measure all of the nutrients and sediments that run off agricultural fields during storm events.
02
Scalability
Models can simulate impacts across different scales, from field-level to landscape-level. Modeling also allows for the assessment of large areas like entire watersheds.
EXAMPLE
Models can be used to estimate the GHG emissions of the entire dairy industry.
03
Efficiency
Conducting extensive environmental measurements across various parameters (e.g., water quality, soil health, GHG emissions) is resource-intensive and can be prohibitively expensive.
EXAMPLE
Equipment used to measure GHGs costs thousands of dollars and requires significant specialized labor to use.
04
Predictive Capacity
Modeling provides the ability to predict future environmental impacts under different management scenarios or changing climatic conditions.
EXAMPLE
We can use models to estimate how field GHG emissions decline when farmers use less fertilizer.
GHG Modeling Tools
Many tools have been developed to estimate the GHG emissions of dairy farms. These range from simple calculators to very sophisticated process models. To obtain an accurate estimate of all emissions related to producing milk on the farm, the tool must consider:
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All direct emissions from the farm.
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The emissions occurring in the production of resources (e.g., fuel, electricity, fertilizer, purchased feed, etc.) used on the farm.
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The indirect emissions from various forms of nitrogen lost from the farm.
Commonly used tools include:
GHG Modeling Tools
National Milk Producers Federation
FARM ES is specifically designed to model GHG footprint of dairy farms.
AVAILABILITY
Available to members
Evaluation performed by second-party evaluators (usually co-op field reps)
United States Department of Agriculture
COMET-Planner evaluates potential carbon sequestration and GHG reductions farms can achieve by adopting Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) conservation practices.
AVAILABILITY
Publicly available
AVAILABILITY
Publicly available
Cool Farm Alliance
Cool Farm Tool tracks GHGs, biodiversity impacts, water, and supply chain management. Use of this tool is accepted in EU markets.
AVAILABILITY
Partially available → farmers get a number of free assessments, organizations must become members
Field to Market
This assessment framework measures the environmental impacts of commodity crop production and identifies opportunities for continuous improvement.
AVAILABILITY
Publicly available
Water Quality Modeling Tools
Water modeling can be used to better understand a farm’s impact on their water system as well as assess different management practices and actions.
Commonly used tools include:
Water Quality Modeling Tools
Stroud Water Research Center
This online system is used to map and model your watershed using tools to analyze land use, soil data, stormwater runoff, water quality impacts, and the impact of conservation or development scenarios.
AVAILABILITY
Publicly available
Texas A&M, USDA
SWAT is a commonly used model developed to quantify the impact of land management practices in complex watersheds.
AVAILABILITY
Publicly available
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
PLET uses simple algorithms to calculate nutrient and sediment loads from different land uses and the load reductions that would result from implementing best management practices.
AVAILABILITY
Publicly available
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
This represents a collection of tools that can help to understand water quality problems, create water use plans, evaluate the effects of potential actions on water quality, and conduct other water quality analyses.
AVAILABILITY
Publicly available
Learn More
Please note that we cannot confirm the accuracy or reliability of the materials found on external websites linked here.
References
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Fu, B., Horsburgh, J. S., Jakeman, A. J., Gualtieri, C., Arnold, T., Marshall, L., Green, T. R., Quinn, N. W. T., Volk, M., Hunt, R. J., Vezzaro, L., Croke, B. F. W., Jakeman, J. D., Snow, V., & Rashleigh, B. (2020). Modeling water quality in watersheds: From here to the next generation. Water Resources Research, 56(11).
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Thoma, G., Popp, J., Shonnard, D., Nutter, D., Matlock, M., Ulrich, R., Kellogg, W., Kim, D., Neiderman, Z., Kemper, N., Adom, F., & East, C. (2013). Regional analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from USA dairy farms: A cradle to farm-gate assessment of the American dairy industry circa 2008. International Dairy Journal, 31, S29-S40.
Digital Resources
Summary Presentation
SPEAKER: Dr. Erin Cortus, University of Minnesota